Project Freedom aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. experts are skeptical

Defense and geopolitical experts are skeptical that “Project Freedom,” the Trump administration’s new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, will succeed.

“In my view, this is not a solution,” jennifer kavanaghSenior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a liberal-leaning foreign policy think tank, Told about the operation.

“It doesn’t really address the underlying problem here, which is that uncertainty about the safety of transit means that ship captains and shipping companies are hesitant to take risks,” Kavanaugh said in a phone interview.

However, the administration says its longstanding efforts to protect ships passing through the strait from Iranian attacks are already working.

US Central Command leader Admiral Brad Cooper said, “We have now opened a route through the Strait of Hormuz to advance the free flow of commerce.” said on mondayJust hours after Project Freedom launched.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that two US commercial ships, accompanied by US destroyers, “have already safely transited the strait, indicating that passage is clear.”

“We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact,” he claimed. “They said they control the strait. They don’t.”

The administration has not placed a price tag or timeline on the new mission, although Hegseth said it would be “focused in scope and temporary in duration.”

Analysts who spoke to CNBC questioned whether the operation offers a short-term or long-term solution to the chokepoint in the strait, the top global oil route that is at the center of the ongoing conflict with Iran. Pre-war, 20% of the world’s oil transited through the Persian Gulf through the narrow waterway.

They say the defensive operation does not adequately address or disrupt Iran’s ability to threaten ships attempting to transit the strait, and travel therefore remains too risky for most attempts.

This could further sour relations with Iran, leading to increased aggression and prolonging any diplomatic settlement, which may be the only way to return commercial traffic in the strait to pre-war levels.

“Project Freedom is unlikely to be a completely definitive solution to Gulf maritime insecurity, but rather a limited, high-risk preventive experiment.” jack kennedythe head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence said in an email.

chairman Donald Trump announced this operation satya social post On Sunday evening, he said the US has assured countries whose ships are stuck due to the war that it will “safely get their ships out of these restricted waterways.”

centcom Said the US military would deploy “guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members” to support Project Freedom.

The mission is not escorting individual ships, which “would be too costly and resource intensive,” Kavanagh said. The strait is approximately 104 miles long and 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

“This has to be permanent until you have a political solution,” he said. “So that’s not really possible.”

Cooper told reporters Monday afternoon that under the current arrangement “you have a much more comprehensive defensive package than you would have if you were just doing escort.”

He also said the US has encouraged dozens of ships and shipping companies to resume traffic flow through the strait. “This news has been received with great enthusiasm and we’re already starting to see movement,” Cooper said.

Indeed, a US-flagged commercial ship operated by a subsidiary of Danish shipping giant Maersk successfully transited the strait under US military escort on Monday, the company said.

But this hardly represents a return to normal times, when more than 100 ships, including dozens of oil tankers, transited the route every day.

Project Freedom began more than three weeks after Trump announced a US blockade of the Gulf of Oman on the eastern side of the strait, which aims to increase economic pressure on Tehran by preventing ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

The naval blockade, which remains in effect, came after an initial round of peace talks with Iran failed to reach an agreement. Trump then expressed frustration about continued low traffic in the strait, despite a fragile armistice taking effect last week.

The de facto closure of the vital waterway is a historic blow to global energy supplies that has increased dramatically oil and gas prices And supplies of fuel, fertilizers and other commodities were disrupted.

Project Freedom “probably does not do enough to begin the process of normalizing the Hormuz transit,” Fernando Ferreirathe director of Rapidon Energy Group’s geopolitical risk service said in a phone interview.

While the US can provide guidance on sea routes that are free of mines, or provide air support and coverage for transit ships, Iran “clearly has an asymmetric capability” to continue to exert control in the region, Ferreira said.

“Companies will be reluctant to travel for this reason”, he said, “at least until there is a clear demonstration that Iran no longer has those capabilities.”

Kennedy agreed. He said, “Until core disputes related to ceasefire talks, sanctions relief, Iran’s enrichment capacity, and security guarantees are resolved, most operators will consider the Hormuz transit as extremely high risk, regardless of the US naval presence.”

A ship operated by South Korea also caught fire on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later said this Iran attacked it.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington not to engage in further military action. write in an x ​​post“The events in Hormuz make clear that there is no military solution to a political crisis.”

“America should be wary of being dragged into the quagmire by well-wishers again,” he wrote. He further wrote, “Project Freedom is project deadlock.”

Despite the aggression, the US says its ceasefire with Iran will remain in effect. Kavanaugh said both sides have incentives to keep the tense ceasefire alive.

But that may not be possible if attacks increase, Kennedy said.

“Maintaining safe passage will require indefinite convoy operations, expanded base defense, and acceptance of continued pressure from Iran, including direct threats to U.S. naval assets,” he said. “If Iranian attacks intensify or U.S. ships are attacked, Washington will face a choice between ending operations or escalating militarily.”

Kennedy said, “Project Freedom is tactically viable but strategically, unlikely to restore confidence to commercial shipping in the long term without broad political agreement.”