Americans are feeling the sting of the gas pump amid the war in Iran, despite the United States importing only 8% of its oil from the Middle East. So why are gas prices still high?
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Thursday, April 30, the national average price per gallon of regular gas is $4.30, with prices as high as $6 per gallon in some states. A month ago, the average price was $3.99, and around this time in 2025, it was $3.18.
Gas prices are the highest not only since the start of the Iran war, but also since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. And gas prices are rising at a time when peace talks between Iran and the United States appear to be stalled.
Despite the drop in prices, experts say Americans should still expect to pay higher rates at the pump. Here’s what to know about gas prices — and when they might start falling.
Why are gas prices so high in America?
Oil prices rose as the war in Iran disrupted supplies to the region, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The war has also increased the dangers of oil shipping and caused additional damage to oil-industry infrastructure, among other factors.
Although the United States is considered the top oil producing country, it is also the top oil consumer. Despite an average of more than 13 million barrels per day in the US, domestic gasoline prices are driven more by global market forces, with oil producers selling tankers to the highest bidder in the international market.
“So, oil literally flows to the highest price ever,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If a tanker can get a higher price in Malaysia than in Rotterdam, than in Rio de Janeiro, it will go to Malaysia.”
When will gas prices fall?
James Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, estimates that high prices will last until the end of 2026.
“Insurance on ships passing through the strait will increase,” Zandi said. “There is always a possibility of the ceasefire breaking down and traders will want some premium to compensate for that risk.”
“That premium will probably persist for some time,” Cox said.
Gas prices have fluctuated in recent days, following news of a fragile ceasefire on April 8. Even with a ceasefire, oil and gasoline prices will remain high for several months until a new source comes online, Cox said.
Oil infrastructure in the Middle East has been damaged or disrupted during the Iran war. “Some of this will take years to rebuild,” said Kate Gordon, CEO of California Forward, a nonprofit that advocates for sustainability. During that time, the world’s oil supply will be disrupted.
“It’s impossible to get back what we had,” Zandi said. “At least not this year.”
