President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on May 27, 2026 in Washington.
Ivan Vucchi | reuters
President Donald Trump said this week that a comprehensive peace deal with Iran could soon be signed, one of dozens of similar claims he has made in nearly three months.
The latest example may not resonate with the average listener — after all, no deal has emerged after dozens of Trump’s claims so far. But despite the lack of follow-through, the market continues to react to the president’s repeated promises.
Trump has hinted or explicitly said more than 30 times that a deal is almost done, according to a CNBC review of the president’s social media posts and public comments.
Stock and oil markets, which have wobbled amid a shock to global energy supplies caused by the war, continue to pay close attention to Trump’s signals about an upcoming deal, even if they do not succeed. Meanwhile, more than 100 days into the war, Washington and Tehran are further away from an agreement than they were in mid-April, when they initiated a fragile ceasefire that was announced as a path to a final agreement within two weeks.
“The market expects this to be over at any moment, at any moment,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC. “I still think it’s holding on to that hope.”
The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on this report.
Trump said Tuesday morning that the US and Iran could reach a “very, very good deal” in “two or three days.” Oil prices fell in the next trading session – although they reversed course on Wednesday after Trump vowed to attack Iran “very hard” but with no diplomatic breakthrough.
Oil and markets have reacted positively to Trump’s optimism that an end to the war is just around the corner through an agreement that is favorable to both the US and Iran.
This has been the case in recent weeks, as the US-Iran ceasefire has been repeatedly undermined by military flare-ups in the Persian Gulf and peace talks have been further strained by Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Fueling the momentum is a belief among markets and analysts that, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, an agreement will eventually be reached that will end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil-shipping route.
“While large-scale oil movements continue to be driven by geopolitical developments, there is some optimism that the US and Iran will reach a peace deal this month,” Deutsche Bank researchers said in a June analyst note.
While both sides are eager to show they can endure a protracted war, Iran’s economy has been battered and Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid the conflict, leading observers to believe incentives are in favor of a deal.
“Trump’s off-ramp requirement means de-escalation bias could still persist and provide a floor to equities,” Barclays analysts wrote in a June 3 equity research note.
“Every time he tweeted about it, oil sold off and the markets got optimistic,” Boockvar said of Trump. But “for a few months now we’ve been close and on the goal line.”
Of course, Trump’s social media posts aren’t the only factor impacting oil and equities. For example, the AI trade that has driven the stock market to record highs is largely separate from the Iran conflict. And oil prices, which rose after the war began but have since stabilized, are being affected by a number of global forces, including a sharp decline in Chinese oil imports.
But Trump’s wartime update is being closely scrutinized — though even some of the president’s allies are growing impatient with his claims about where the talks will go.
“I’m starting to feel like we’re Charlie Brown and Iran is Lucy, and every time we go to kick the ball it’s taken away,” Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., said on Fox Business Interview Tuesday “You know, ‘We’re close to a deal, two days away from a deal, three days away from a deal, and it’s not happening.’
Trump’s deal claims began in March
As early as mid-March – less than three weeks after the US and Israel first launched strikes against Iran – Trump began saying that Tehran had begun talks in hopes of a diplomatic solution.
“They want to make a deal. They’re talking to our people,” Trump said at the White House on the afternoon of March 16.
A week later, Trump, in all-caps satya social postannounced that it was suspending military strikes due to “very good and productive talks” about a complete cessation of hostilities. Stocks rose after that announcement and oil fell more than 10%.
The situation reversed three days later when Trump messed up his message. Warning to Iran’s negotiators “Get serious soon, before it’s too late,” he said later at a cabinet meeting, before insisting that Tehran “is begging for a deal, not me.”
On March 29, Trump said negotiations were going “very well”, claiming that Iran had agreed to most of a 15-point proposal put forward by the US, but Tehran publicly rejected that proposal, and oil prices rose in the next trading session.
Trump claimed war on March 31 won’t last longand he wrote true social A day later, the President of Iran had asked America for a ceasefire. WTI crude prices fell on both days.
But no ceasefire emerged that week and Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Iran, further weakening traders’ outlook.
April claims: It will take two weeks to finalize the deal
After threatening Iran with “returning to the Stone Age” and warning that its “whole civilization will be destroyed” if no deal was reached, Trump said on the evening of April 7 that the two sides had reached an agreement. Two-week ceasefire agreement.
His announcement strongly suggested that the temporary ceasefire would pave the way for a permanent agreement. “Almost all points of past dispute between the United States and Iran have been agreed upon, but in a two-week period the agreement will be finalized and completed,” Trump wrote.
Stocks soared on the news and oil prices fell more than 16%. But two weeks came and went, and although Trump continued to insist that negotiators had resolved most of their disagreements, no agreement was reached.
Instead, each side accused the other of violating the terms of the ceasefire, and Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire on April 21 until Iran sends the US a “unified resolution” to end the war.
May: ‘Final Determination’
Next month, Trump Frequently doled out Update estimating progress on one the whole deal or short term Memorandum of understanding With Iran.
Trump said on May 1 that the end of the war “shouldn’t take too long”.
He said of Iran, “I think we’ll end it very quickly and they won’t have nuclear weapons.” 19 may.
No deal of any kind was made during that time, but reportedly both America and Iran started attacks against each other.
On May 29, Trump said he was going to the White House Situation Room to make a “final determination” on an agreement. But he ended the meeting without reaching any decision. Oil prices fell anyway.
June: ‘two or three days’
On June 1, Trump reiterated that Iran “really wants to make a deal,Advising his critics to ‘just sit back and relax’ because “everything will be fine in the end – it always does!”
However, Iranian state media reported later that day that its negotiators would cut off communications with the US and that Tehran would move to completely block the Strait of Hormuz.
After this, Trump told CNBC that he did not care if the talks ended. but he later claimed Negotiations with Iran continue “at a brisk pace”. WTI crude still rose nearly 6%.
Over the weekend, Iran and Israel carried out attacks for the first time since the ceasefire began.
After leaving the NBA Finals game in New York City on Monday night, Trump told reporters that the US and Iran were in the final stages of a “very, very good deal” that could be reached in “two or three days.”
Earlier on Monday evening, a US Army helicopter had fallen down while patrolling the strait. Trump on Tuesday accused Iran of shooting it down and the US launched retaliatory strikes, prompting a military response from Iran.
On Wednesday, Trump said in the White House that America will attack Iran again.
“We’ll see what happens with the deal,” he said. He did not say a deal was close.
— cnbc bria cousinsAshley Trujillo, Irit Skulnik and john meloy Contributed to this report.
