A man stands as a tugboat directs the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin at the oil terminal in the port of Matanzas in northwestern Cuba on March 31, 2026.
Yamil lage | AFP | getty images
Energy shipments are increasingly being used as a foreign policy tool as the Trump administration attempts to end two blockades on opposite sides of the world.
The US, under the direction of President Donald Trump, has launched a naval blockade targeting Iranian ships in and around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz to put economic pressure on Iran and end the Middle East crisis.
The move has worried China, which has long been the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, with Beijing calling the blockade “irresponsible and dangerous”.
At the same time, the US has imposed a de facto fuel blockade on Cuba, and threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending crude to the Communist-run Caribbean island.
Russia, which has already broken the US blockade by delivering a consignment of 100,000 tonnes of crude oil to the fuel-starved country. Mortgage To continue supplying Cuba with vital supplies of oil.
Sanctions experts and analysts say both blockades raise questions about the Trump administration’s appetite for challenges to its maritime authority, especially ahead of the US president’s summit with China’s Xi Jinping next month.
Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the possibility of a second Russian oil tanker arriving in Cuba in the coming weeks is highly likely, highlighting the White House’s own contradictions.
“When Anatoly Kolodkin docked at the Matanzas oil terminal, it was in direct violation of US sanctions. The GL-134 had already been modified to the GL-134A, which explicitly excluded deliveries to Cuba. Washington decided not to enforce this,” Ericsson told CNBC by email.
“Trump then publicly stated that he did not care whether Russia supplied Cuba or not. After making this statement and refusing to sanction or even harass the first ship, it now becomes politically untenable to take action against the second ship.”
CNBC has reached out to a White House spokesperson for comment and is awaiting response.
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Monday, marked a sharp escalation in the conflict despite a pause in hostilities agreed on April 7.
However, Trump suggested on Thursday that the war in Iran could end “very soon.” He also raised the possibility of a second round of face-to-face talks between U.S. and Iranian officials “possibly, probably, at the end of next week.”
Trump-Xi talks
When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Erickson said the more dangerous escalation scenario here concerns not a Russian shadow fleet tanker, but a Chinese-linked or Chinese-flagged ship carrying Iranian oil.
He reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant had Said The US will not renew a general license that the White House temporarily granted for the sale of Russian and Iranian offshore oil during the Iran war. The license is due to expire at 12:01am on Sunday.
From that moment on, Erickson said Chinese refineries would once again be the overwhelming buyers of any Iranian oil eligible for export.
TOPSHOT – US President Donald Trump (left) and China’s President Xi Jinping arrive for talks at Gimhae Air Base next to Gimhae International Airport in Busan on October 30, 2025. Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will seek a ceasefire in their bruising trade war on October 30, with the US president predicting a “great meeting” but Beijing is more cautious. (Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP) (Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | getty images
He said, “The logical Iranian move, from a purely statecraft perspective, is to test the blockade with a Chinese-linked or flagged tanker. This puts Washington in an exceptionally precarious position: imposing sanctions on or boarding a Chinese-flagged ship in the weeks before the Xi-Trump talks would be an escalation of an entirely different order of magnitude. Being forced to sink a ship would be unimaginable.”
‘Delicate ceasefire situation’
China, which has long supported the regime in Tehran, has been sharply critical of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ministry of External Affairs It said earlier in the week that a targeted blockade of one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, coupled with an increased military deployment, risked undermining the “already fragile ceasefire situation”.
A tugboat guides the Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to the oil terminal in the port of Matanzas in northwestern Cuba on March 31, 2026.
Yamil lage | AFP | getty images
Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said, “While imposing an undeclared blockade of Cuba, the United States last month allowed a Russian oil tanker to reach the island, apparently because Trump did not want a confrontation with Russia.” Said In an online article published on Tuesday.
“Is he now prepared to risk confrontation with Beijing, just as he is preparing for a summit with Xi Jinping, if the US Navy intercepts tankers carrying oil to China?” He added.
The White House has said that the much-awaited meeting with China’s Xi Jinping will take place in Beijing on May 14 and 15.
— CNBC’s Hugh Leask contributed to this report.