A man holds a sign outside the Versailles restaurant in support of the charges announced by US federal prosecutors against the former Cuban president in Miami, Florida on May 20, 2026.
Chandan Khanna AFP | getty images
The US pressure campaign against Cuba appears to have entered a new phase, raising serious questions about the Trump administration’s end game for the communist-run Caribbean island.
Justice Department on Wednesday not sealed Former Cuban President Raul Castro was indicted on charges of murder for the downing of two airliners by the country’s military in 1996. At the time of the incident, 94-year-old Castro was the country’s Defense Minister.
The move, which came on May 20 – a symbolically important date recognized as the official birth of the Cuban Republic – marked one of the sharpest escalations in tensions between Washington and Havana.
FBI Director Kash Patel called the indictments of Castro and five others “a major step toward accountability.”
The measure is part of President Donald Trump’s broader effort to push for regime change in Cuba, a strategy that has recently included tightening economic sanctions and imposing an oil blockade on the island since January.
This has deepened the economic crisis and Cuba is facing its biggest test since the fall of the Soviet Union. Cuba’s Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said last week that the island had run out of oil and diesel, describing the situation in the country as “extremely tense.”
The growing humanitarian crisis inside Cuba remains a wildcard that may yet force both sides to respond correctively.
Robert Munks
Head of Americas Research at Verisk Maplecroft
Some Cuban officials have warned in recent weeks about possible US military intervention.
This comes after different media reported that Cuba had allegedly More than 300 military drones are being manufactured from Russia and Iran for potentially use against US targets and the Trump administration is doing so. intelligence gathering flights Off the coast of Cuba – echoing a pattern that emerged in the lead-up to US military operations in both Venezuela and Iran.
Antony Capcia, a professor of Latin American history at the University of Nottingham, Britain, said he continues to doubt that full-scale military action is being seriously considered by the United States.
However, in Cuba, the state has always taken the military threat seriously and prepared for it, Kapsia told CNBC by email.
The Russian patrol ship Neustrakhimi arrives at the port of Havana, July 27, 2024, as part of a fleet composed of the training ship Smolny and the offshore oil tanker Yelnya. The Russian fleet will remain at the island from 27–30 July.
Yamil lage | AFP | getty images
“The Pentagon has certainly long held the view that military action would result in U.S. troops being placed in body bags on an unacceptable scale. The U.S. appears to be running hot and cold on Cuba – ‘back channel’ negotiations one minute and threats of immediate action the next,” Kapasia said.
“So far, (Trump) has openly talked about continuing to use economic measures to strangle the system, and that’s certainly what he’s doing — it’s cheaper than war and certainly making (life) even more difficult for ordinary Cubans,” he said.
CNBC has contacted Cuban Foreign Ministry and White House spokespeople and is awaiting response.
What next for Cuba?
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel on Wednesday dismissed Castro’s indictment said on social media it was “a political maneuver, with no legal basis, whose only purpose is to promote the fabricated document that they use to justify the absurdity of military aggression against #Cuba.”
Earlier in the week, Diaz-Canel Said American threats of military aggression against Havana were well known, saying that if they materialized, “it would trigger bloodshed with incalculable consequences.”
Trump has previously talked up the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and said the White House could set its sights on Havana after the Iran war. The US President has also said that he can do whatever he wants with the country, adding that he feels he would have the “honor” of “taking Cuba”.
Robert Munks, head of Americas research at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said that while the Trump administration’s exact intentions remain opaque, Washington’s current posture points less to an imminent direct move than to letting pressure do the work.
Munks told CNBC via email that the biggest threat to Cuba’s survival is not foreign interference, “but whether the state can keep the lights on long enough to remain in control.”
“Even though security forces are likely to keep the unrest under control in the short term, there is potential for serious instability as further power outages lead to even greater shortages of food and water,” Munks said.
He added, “The growing humanitarian crisis inside Cuba remains a wildcard that may yet force both sides to make an immediate response.” “More aid is expected to arrive from regional countries such as Mexico and Uruguay, but the US blockade will continue to impact the everyday experience of ordinary Cubans.”
Alexander B. Gray, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Said The Trump administration’s end game for Cuba is clear.
“This is to delegitimize the Castro regime and create the conditions for internal change in the medium term that will be better aligned with U.S. interests,” Gray said in a note published Wednesday.
“The US has an interest in a regime in Havana that is aligned with US security priorities and resists extra-hemispheric interference from US rivals such as China and Russia,” he said.