Commercial ships anchored at Port Sultan Qaboos in the vicinity of Port Qaboos in Muscat, Oman on June 21, 2026.
Elke Scoliers | Getty Images News | getty images
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged since US President Donald Trump’s blockade took effect last week, with shipowners turning away from one of the world’s most vital energy corridors as fighting between the US and Iran escalates.
New US attacks on Iran, Tehran’s announcement of a blanket ban on maritime traffic and fresh attacks on commercial vessels have led to a sharp decline in crossings through the strait in several shipping datasets, prompting operators to reevaluate the risks of entering the Gulf.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded only 53 ship transits in the week to July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week. Tanker and gas carrier movements, which are the vessels responsible for transporting most of the Gulf crude oil and liquefied natural gas, have declined from 90 to 30 crossings.
Kepler data similarly shows activity worsening soon after the blockade began. Daily crossings, which had averaged more than 20 ships before July 15, fell to 16 that day before falling into the single digits on July 16. Traffic remained low for the rest of the week, with only sporadic recoveries.
The latest slowdown reverses weeks of gradual normalization following a mid-June ceasefire that encouraged some shipowners to resume Gulf voyages.
Instead, renewed fighting has once again left the strategic waterway, which carries about a fifth of global oil consumption, virtually empty.
“Things have slowed down significantly since tensions started to resurface,” said Bridget Dykun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “It’s not surprising – people step back and reevaluate, as you would expect.”
However, the traffic has not ended completely. “Every person’s risk appetite is different,” Dykun said. “We are still seeing tankers coming in and out, it has not stopped completely.”
Instead of a rapid recovery, he said, ship movements are likely to continue to fluctuate as shipowners seize brief windows of perceived safety before retreating again whenever tensions rise.
S&P Global data has also presented a similar picture. Only 40 ships transited the strait between 17 July and 19 July, an average of about 13 crossings per day, while by 19 July weekly traffic dropped by about 50% from the previous week.
Commercial vessel traffic accounted for more than 70% during this period, although only one-third was assessed as complying with maritime restrictions. Iran-linked and sanctioned vessels continued to dominate much of the activity, suggesting that mainstream international shipowners remain reluctant to return.
“The latest increase shows how premature expectations for a rapid opening of the strait were,” said Saul Kavonik, head of energy research at MST Markey.
“The hostilities and the reimposed blockade have brought the conflict back into high gear,” he said, adding that flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to about 15% of pre-war levels. He told CNBC via email that oil could reach $100 a barrel if the current intensity of fighting continues for several weeks or if regional energy infrastructure is attacked.