Living in San Francisco since 2001 is a surreal experience. I arrived a year after the dotcom bubble burst, and the city felt desolate, especially downtown where Credit Suisse was headquartered at 201 Howard Street.
I was coming from New York City, where it felt alive at all times, including at 5:15 in the morning when I would walk from my studio at 45 Wall Street to Goldman’s Equity office at 1 New York Plaza. (Still wondering if passing over the steam from those manhole covers was a good health choice.)
San Francisco, the world’s cheapest international city, is right in line with New York City standards. But I love it for the weather, the food, the diversity and the entrepreneurial spirit. Just like how many of us want financial freedom with FIRE, many people who come to San Francisco and stay want freedom of personal expression. It is a beautiful thing.
In San Francisco you will be accepted for who you are, perhaps more than any other city in the world. And I’ve been everywhere.
San Francisco became a punching bag during Covid
Sadly, San Francisco got dragged through the mud during COVID. This was the town social media and mainstream media loved to hate. People looked at the Tenderloin, probably the worst neighborhood in San Francisco, and declared the entire city a scene from hell. It was interesting to watch and, to be honest, a little insulting.
Yes, there has been an increase in crime during Covid, especially car vandalism and shop theft. But wasn’t this happening everywhere in the country?
It was frustrating to feel helpless as the chaos spread, while politicians seemed slow to act. And yes, we had city government corruption. It’s hard to avoid this when you’re running a $14+ billion annual budget.
But here’s what went spectacularly wrong with the national outrage machine: The online hate was much worse in reality. I kept getting messages asking if I was okay and if it was safe to go to San Francisco. Meanwhile, I was taking daily walks and drives around the city and it was… just normal life. Just because you’re watching a show in black and white doesn’t mean the world isn’t in color.
As someone who has operated Financial Samurai since 2009, I know well how much hate exists online. Comments are not immediately approved once submitted due to occasional offensive and intolerant language. During COVID, hate was coming several times a week from readers living elsewhere in San Francisco.
The gap between perception and reality was huge. And whenever there is a perception/reality gap that wide, a wise investor should pay attention to it. There is always an opportunity.
If people don’t want to invest in San Francisco, I will
The beauty of the market is that there are always two sides to it. When everyone is running to get out, someone is shopping and vice versa.
Buying Bay Area tech stocks was one approach. It’s not a pure game, but Google, my favorite quasi-monopoly, was attractive when fear was at its peak. I also got exposure to San Francisco-based AI companies like Glynn Tech, Together AI, Harvey AI, OpenAI, Flock Group, Anduril, SpaceX, and Anthropic through traditional venture capital and public venture capital funds like VCX. If you lived in San Francisco, you already knew what was going to happen.
But the easiest pure play on San Francisco? Buying a single-family home in the city to enjoy life and raise a family. This is the safest way to play AI Boom.
I remember in 2022 the real estate market was at its peak as interest rates soared and the anti-SF narrative was in full swing. The house I had my eye on since May 2022 — which a Google executive declined to purchase at a higher price — came back on the market in May 2023, just in time for peak destruction loop hysteria. By the end of 2023, I pulled the trigger.
Buying a home you love in San Francisco has always been difficult. Real prices are high, competition is fierce, and the amount of wealth being generated in this city is obscene. When prices fall, the window is short (usually 1-2 years). When prices rise, they do not rise gradually, but in stages through intense bidding wars, which drive away hesitant buyers forever.
So buying a home in the doomsday era felt like the S&P 500 train had finally slowed down enough for us to get on it. Because if you never travel, you don’t miss the journey, you watch the train disappear on the horizon while the prices go out of reach.
For families like ours, this was not just an investment decision. It was a now-or-never moment because the children were still young. Either we buy during a period of fear and uncertainty, or we risk being permanently priced out of our dream home, barring some unexpected financial windfall that easily falls into our lap.
crime data they weren’t telling you
Here’s the thing about the doomsday story: actual crime data from 2023 onwards tells a completely different story. Violent crime and property crime both declined.
The murder count of 35 in 2024 was the lowest since 1961. Property crime dropped 30% in one year. And by the beginning of 2025, violent crime in SF is down 22% year-over-year, the largest decline of any major city in California.
The media story was lagging behind reality by about 12-18 months.
By 2025, there had been rapid change in almost every category. And crime statistics continue to improve in 2026.
They weren’t even telling you the house prices
While the Doom Loop narrative was raging, San Francisco real estate was quietly staging one of the great setup opportunities of the decade. The rate hike had softened prices from a 2022 peak. A period of recession started in the shares. Sellers were motivated. The competition was silent.
The math has been good for anyone buying during that window from late 2022 to 2023. The tech boom, the AI boom, and the long-term housing shortage that makes it structurally difficult to build in NIMBY-ville San Francisco have all conspired to push prices higher on every meaningful time horizon.
Looking back, the window of opportunity was clear. But even when the media was telling you about doom 24/7, it still required courage to buy a multi-million dollar home that could eat up your FIRE number.
Although prices today always seem expensive, the reality is that in the future, most real estate purchases today will look like cheap deals due to inflation and general population growth.
If you try to buy a single-family home in the frenzy area (now up to $3.5 million, up from $2.5 million during COVID), you’ll likely face some serious competition. Here’s another example of a renovated house on a street that went for far more than asking. These are not huge homes with panoramic views. These are exactly the kind of homes a typical family of four looks for.
So grateful for the doom loop narrative
By the end of 2023, the Doom Loop narrative has quietly died out.
Not just from the peak, but crime in many categories has also fallen below pre-pandemic levels.
We have a new mayor in Daniel Lurie who is independently so wealthy that he is beholden to the special interests and city contractor lobby that have made San Francisco’s public finances look like organized crime with better parking.
The AI boom has only accelerated, with some of the biggest names planning IPOs within the next 12 to 24 months. Meanwhile, mega funds are emerging in the venture capital industry, driving further growth.
If I had not invested in tech and private AI companies by 2023, I am not sure I would be able to buy my home today if it came on the market at current prices. For tech executives and AI workers who want homes, the bidding war is yet another one.
I also think about all the people left behind in San Francisco during the pandemic. Because of his loyalty, he was rewarded with better salary increases and promotions. As relationships developed, entrepreneurs gained easier access to funding. Investors joined early on better terms. And everyone was able to afford favorable rents and buy more affordable homes before people came back.
The Doom Loop is completely a Boom Loop. And there are many of those who stayed earn millions more Just wait a little longer.
embrace the next apocalypse narrative
The next time the world invades your city – from the comfort of your couch in a position they never left – embrace it. Pay attention to the story. Check whether it matches the ground reality. The greater the gap between perception and reality, the greater the opportunity.
Maybe it’s not a single-family home. Maybe it’s a rental property that’s being sold at a pandemic-era discount, or a stake in a downtown office building when everyone declares offices dead (again). Or maybe it’s locking in an unreliable long-term lease because tenants have fled the city. Even when applying to better schools, more opportunities open up when families move.
Look for local economic catalysts in micro-neighborhoods. AI campuses, transit investments, neighborhood anchors opening or returning, hospital expansions, and school rebuilding. Prices start rising even before the national discussion takes hold.
Those who fled San Francisco during COVID are now painstakingly discovering what they forgot. Being out of sight caused their working relationships to weaken. They cannot get rent-controlled apartments back at their old prices. And they certainly can’t buy homes at ruinous prices. It seemed logical to leave at this moment. Staying put proved to be the better long-term move.
I’m really grateful for the San Francisco Doom Loop. The media and national politics gave this double unemployed family a more comfortable future as opportunities became cheaper and we took advantage. Now that the boom loop narrative is in full swing, we can stay free longer.
So to everyone reading: Embrace the hate! Everything moves in cycles. Recessions don’t last forever, and neither do upheavals last forever. Enjoy Boom Loop, stay humble, and keep an eye open for the next time the story strays away from reality. Only then is the real money made.
reader question
Does any resident of San Francisco live in the age of COVID and endure a constant narrative of hate and destruction from the media, acquaintances, and people who have never set foot in the city? How did you deal with all the adversity, and did you take advantage of the gap between perception and reality?
If you missed the Doom Loop buying window, what’s your plan now that prices are rising again? For those outside the Bay Area, has your city ever gone through your own doom cycle story, and did you take advantage or sit on the sidelines? And finally, how long do you think this boom loop will last?
New Doom Loop Investment Tips
There is currently a mini-doom loop narrative going on with real estate in Sunbelt cities. However, with underbuilding from 2022, when interest rates begin to rise, there will be an undersupply of housing for several years from the end of 2026. As a result, expect both rents and property prices to start rising in places like Austin.
If you want to take advantage, check fund accumulationMy favorite private real estate platform that invests primarily in residential and industrial real estate in the Sunbelt. They are also investing more in data centers for AI buildout and have received more capital to reinvest after a successful investment in VCX.
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