Perhaps for the first time, being older at work may actually be an advantage.
I’ve watched it for 40 years. Whenever a company starts trimming, the white hairs are the first to come out. High salary, “old” skills, close to retirement – bump, severance package.
He just changed. And it’s because of the thing everyone has been told will kill our jobs: artificial intelligence.
a fresh global survey Oliver Wyman and 415 CEOs of the New York Stock Exchange reveal that the corner office is employing a total of 180 people.
A year ago, officials were planning to increase the number of junior staff. Now they are planning to cut them down and put more emphasis on experienced people.
Here’s what the data actually shows, why it’s happening, and the catch you need to see coming.
1. Hiring plans failed rapidly
The Oliver Wyman survey found that more than 40% of CEOs plan to reduce junior positions over the next year or two and instead tilt their workforces toward middle and senior employees. Only 17% want to increase the number of their junior employees.
a year ago? Those numbers were basically upside down.
This is not a trend. This is a U-turn at 80 mph. And this happened in 12 months.
2. AI agents are eating entry-level work, not yours
here’s why. AI agents can already write code at junior-developer quality, evaluate sales leads, and crank out basic analyst tasks that are used to feed entry-level pipelines.
What they can’t do, according to labor experts, is make the kind of decision that actually comes from working for 20 or 30 years.
Ravin Jesuthasan, a consultant and author on the future of work, told Bloomberg that companies are increasingly saying they want someone who has already been through it — because that worker’s experience, knowledge and critical thinking make him or her far more valuable than a newbie.
Translation: AI takes over novice tasks. The giants can’t handle calls that AI can’t handle.
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3. Two major university studies say the same thing
This is not just a survey of CEO opinions. The data supports this.
Stanford University researchersUsing ADP’s payroll data covering millions of US workers, it found that workers between the ages of 22 and 25 in the occupations most exposed to AI, such as software development and customer service, have seen a 16% relative decline in employment through the end of 2022.
Old employees in the same areas? Stable or increasing.
a separate harvard paper Resume data from 62 million workers in 285,000 firms was analyzed. After companies adopted generative AI, researchers observed that junior hiring dropped drastically, while senior headcount remained stable.
Two different datasets. Same story. AI is hollowing out the bottom of the corporate ladder while leaving the top intact.
4. IBM is the rare outlier – and it’s telling
IBM is one of the few big companies to back out. tech giant said in february It plans to triple entry-level hiring in the US this year — but it’s rewriting those job descriptions, focusing new hires on monitoring AI, handling customers and tending to work machines.
Most other companies are not following suit.
Microsoft’s analysis of the jobs most threatened by AI revealed that knowledge work – exactly the kind of roles entry-level employees are used to filling – topped the list of threats.
Lesson for older workers: Companies still want humans to take care of the machines. They just want those people to be experienced.
5. Don’t pop the champagne – even older employees aren’t safe
Here’s the catch, and don’t skip it.
Just because AI is moving toward experience today doesn’t mean your work will be bulletproof tomorrow.
New School labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci told Bloomberg that “companies’ commitment to workers is weakening.” If the mathematics changes, the same companies may lay off juniors today and induct seniors in the next quarter.
And here’s the big problem no one in the C-suite wants to talk about: If you stop hiring juniors today, where will your mid-level managers come from in five years?
A workforce of all veterans and no newbies. AI does not evolve into a manager. People do it – and they have to start somewhere.
what to do now
If you’re an older employee, this is your moment — but treat it like a window, not a guarantee. Some things to do this week:
- Learn AI. Don’t fight it. use it. Be the one who can manage a team of agents, not the one who is afraid of them.
- Document your decision. Make your experience visible. The reason your CEO wants you is because of a decision you’ve made over the decades – make sure your boss knows it.
- Be anxious. As Ghilarducci’s warning suggests, as soon as another AI becomes good enough, companies will cut older workers. Don’t get comfortable.
If you are a young employee, the bar is even higher. Don’t ask AI to do your work. Use AI to get your work done faster – and save yourself the time older workers already have to make decisions.
If you’re looking to make a move, there is a growing list of companies that actively prefer to hire older employees. Use this moment.
The job market completely turned upside down. Whether it stays that way or not is up to you.