Vireo Growth Strong organic revenue growth supports $1.50 price target

By Thomas Kerr, CFA

OTC: VREOF

Read the entire VREOF research report

Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results

On March 17, 2026, Vireo (OTC: VREOF) announced 4^th Financial results for the quarter 2025, which showed impressive revenue growth and margin improvement.

Reported revenue growth increased 317.7% to $104.5 million from $25 million in the prior-year period, primarily due to acquisitions due in early 2025. However, on a pro forma basis, 4^th Quarterly same-store sales increased 22% year-over-year, and wholesale revenue increased 55% year-over-year. Excluding Minnesota, same-store sales increased 11.3% year over year. Sequential revenue growth was also strong, rising 14.0% from Q3 2025 to Q4 2025.

Reported adjusted EBITDA increased 347%, and pro-forma adjusted EBITDA increased 30% for Q4.^th quarter. EBITDA margin increased to 28.2% compared to 27.4% in the prior year period. This was primarily driven by the continued optimization of previous acquisitions.

At the end of 2025, the company had $122.5 million in cash and an additional $1.0 million of marketable securities. Total current assets, excluding tax receivables, assets held for sale and Schwarz notes receivable, were $204.1 million, while current liabilities excluding uncertain tax liabilities of $71.6 million, creating a strong current ratio of 2.85x.

footprint expansion

Following the transformational acquisitions of Wholesome, Proper Brands and Deep Roots Harvest in the first half of 2025, management remains aggressive on the M&A front. Management is focused on building a diverse network of local operators in financially attractive and complementary markets that deliver high ROI over time.

On a pro forma basis, Vireo Growth will operate 166 dispensaries across 10 states (CA, CO, FL, MD, MN, MO, NM, NV, NY and UT), with approximately 800,000 square feet of cultivation and production facilities, as market share continues to expand to scale-able multi-state operators (MSOs). While independent management teams maintain control over day-to-day operations, affiliated companies can take advantage of shared corporate services to facilitate operational efficiency and enhance growth.

From a financing perspective, Vireo’s strong balance sheet remains a key competitive advantage compared to many other US-based cannabis operators, which typically struggle to source capital to fund growth. With $122.5 million of cash on the balance sheet as of 12/31/25, Vireo has maintained strong liquidity accelerating consolidation trends across the industry. Most of the debt on the balance sheet will not come due until 2028.

evaluation and estimation

We are maintaining our price target $1.50 As we await further growth metrics results and the closing of the most recent acquisitions. This valuation level still reflects the potential for meaningful upside from current levels. Our view is that once the uncertainty (old and recent) related to the closing/integration of pending acquisitions clears up, VREOF’s fundamental improvement story will increasingly resonate with investors, leading to a material upside reevaluation for the stock. Vireo is uniquely positioned to continue accreting assets, with further acquisitions likely to represent an incremental catalyst for the stock.

Additionally, a more favorable regulatory backdrop (particularly as it relates to federal reauthorization or incremental state legalization) and/or the acquisition of strategically complementary properties at attractive valuations potentially represent powerful catalysts for VREOFs. Finally, insiders (including directors and executive officers, with investment vehicles managed by related party Chicago Atlantic) own approximately 40% of VREOF’s total capital stock, reinforcing strong management alignment.

Our DCF model suggests a wide divergence between VREOF’s fundamentals and the stock’s current price. Key inputs include: 1) EBIT margin forecast to 2026; 2) slowing EBIT growth by the end of the forecast period; 3) 12.5% ​​discount rate; 4) a sustained growth rate of 5% despite continued high growth rates in the near future; and 5) Exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x.

Based on expected deal closings from recent acquisition announcements, we update our 2026 estimates to $573.5 million, and our 2026 EPS estimate is now $0.03.

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