A customer shops at a grocery store in Miami, Florida on March 11, 2026.
Joe Raddle | getty images
Rising grocery prices in the US as a result of the Iran war could be one of the most politically damaging consequences of the conflict just months before a crucial US election.
Two years ago, President Donald Trump won re-election after pushing for higher prices of eggs, bacon and other grocery store staples. Now he and the Republican Party may face even higher food prices as they try to retain control of Congress in this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats are looking to capitalize on the increase by blaming it on Trump’s decision to go to war, while Republicans are choosing their words to downplay economic forecasts for the higher prices of fuel and fertilizer needed to produce and ship food that voters will eat.
“Our message is affordability and accountability,” Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, said in an interview. “It’s a very precise message, quite narrowly focused, and on both of those pillars, Trump is making our arguments even more compelling.”
“There are a number of ways this president is driving up the cost of food and energy and exacerbating the affordability crisis,” Huffman said. “On all of these fronts, we’ll have a chance to rein in the madness. I really think this will set us up in a very compelling way for Democrats in this election.”
The war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have dealt a blow to the global economy. Oil And gasoline prices have gone up, fertilizer prices have gone up and markets have fallen.
jerk in grocery store
The next blow could be at the grocery store, a significant problem for millions of Americans who have already faced years of increased food prices. All this is happening as election season begins with primaries and campaign trail messaging. This year’s election will be seen as a referendum on the President Donald Trump, who came into office promising to lower the cost of food.
“It makes them more nervous,” Representative Vicente Gonzalez, a South Texas Democrat, told CNBC in an interview when asked how voters would react if food became more expensive. “When people hear this, they say ‘Hey, I can’t pay for groceries and you want to pay for a war in the Middle East?’ I think it’s going to be a tough sell.”
Gonzalez, who already represents a swing seat, saw his district turn red significantly this election cycle after Trump ordered Texas to redraw its congressional district maps to benefit Republicans. The expected price increases at the grocery store only reinforce the story of affordability that has outweighed the midterm competition.
Foods are facing a number of new inflationary pressures due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rise in oil costs is driving up the price of diesel needed by farmers and the trucks and railroads that move food across the country. Due to closure of the strait, fertilizer is also being stopped. And even plastic, a petrochemical product commonly used in food packaging, can contribute to higher checkout costs.
Economists warn that those factors are likely to increase costs for consumers.
“Food prices are going to rise significantly,” said Kjetil Storsleton, an economist and professor at the University of Minnesota, where he is director of the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute. “If you put those things together, that it’s a large part of the price of producing food and the price has gone up a lot, it turns out that the entire price increase in fertilizer will be passed on to food.”
The impending increase in food prices will likely not be immediate, but could happen before voters head to the polls in November. Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere are now preparing to plant their crops, meaning any spike associated with this year’s crop will take time to be registered.
“The amount of grain on the market now is unaffected by the price of gas and the price of fertilizer,” Storsletten said. “But for the new corn and new grains being planted, it will matter.”
“If we could open the Strait of Hormuz now it would really help. But imagine it being closed until the summer. We would see a substantial increase in food prices,” Storsletsen said. Storsletten said crops are typically harvested in late summer and early fall, when prices are expected to rise.
grocery supply chain
Other groceries, such as fresh produce, which have more complex supply chains and require refrigeration throughout, could face the double whammy of cost increases. This is because, unlike grains, fresh produce requires energy for cooling in both storage and transportation, and energy prices are now rising.
“Because produce has to be shipped and kept refrigerated, it can’t be stored,” said Max Teplitzky, chief science officer for the International Fresh Produce Association, a trade group whose members include grocery stores and other retailers and fruit and vegetable growers. “There is a significant energy cost to keeping it on the shelf or in storage, and as energy prices rise, they are likely to drive higher prices to consumers.”
Teplitsky said the longer the strait remains closed, the economic damage could be felt, like the increased price of plastic. Many food items are kept in plastic containers.
“Most domestic plastic production depends on natural gas,” he said. “But as oil is taken out of the equation, natural gas becomes a premium commodity, less available for uses like packaging. So, we’re starting to see these secondary effects.”
The satellite image shows smoke rising from the port of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, on March 15, 2026.
NASA Worldview via reuters
Republicans in Congress acknowledge that the war and the closure of the Strait are likely to increase food prices.
“I think any disruption, any restrictions in terms of transportation of feedstock, inputs, could certainly impact the consumer,” Rep. House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson, R-Pa. said in an interview. “It’s absolutely clear.”
Trump gave no indication of a US move to quickly reopen the strait in a speech to the nation on Wednesday night.
He said, “The countries of the world which receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz should take care of that route.” “They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they must take the lead in protecting the oil on which they are so dependent.”
However, Republicans and the White House have limited options for limiting food price increases. Most point to opening the Strait of Hormuz or ending the war quickly to limit the damage.
Food inflation exceeds overall inflation
Food has been a sticky part of the inflation story that has dogged US consumers through 2022. In February, food inflation eased to 3.1% from a high of 11.2% in September 2022, but still higher than general inflation, which stood at 2.4%.
This is because food, whose price is typically more volatile than other items purchased by consumers, is dependent on many external factors to keep costs low. Hurricanes, droughts and other natural disasters can affect the harvest, reducing supplies. Like American beef cattle herds, herd size can also affect prices at the grocery store – beef prices have skyrocketed in recent years.
It’s a similar dilemma former President Joe Biden found himself in during the 2024 election, when egg prices soared after an avian flu outbreak cut off the supply of egg-laying hens. Republicans swept the 2024 election, putting Trump back in the White House and ousting Democrats from any control of Congress.
Now, Republicans are hoping the conflict will be resolved soon and the strait will open before too much damage is done.
“Our message is, we still don’t believe this is going to have a long-term impact, but the president has indicated to begin with, (it) will be four to six weeks,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told CNBC.