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Domino’s Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 27 before markets open. With the stock down about 11% year to date, this is a chance to calm the skeptics and reset the narrative.
easy comp, high stakes
The last quarter revealed a mixed but broadly constructive picture. Revenue came in at $1.535 billion, 1.23% above estimates and up 6.4% year-over-year. EPS of $5.35 missed consensus by just 0.68%, driven primarily by a slight 5.4 percentage point decline in U.S. company-owned store margins from higher insurance, labor and food costs.
The more important signal was same-store sales. U.S. same-store sales grew +3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to just +0.4% in the year-ago quarter. This momentum sets up a favorable comparative situation in Q1 2026. US same-store sales were down -0.5% in Q1 2025, meaning the bar is set for Q1 2026. The Board also approved increasing the dividend by 15% to $1.99 per quarter declared on February 18, 2026, strengthening confidence in cash generation. Full-year free cash flow increased 31.2% to $671.5 million.
How the DPZ really performed in 2025
The table below shows full-year 2025 results as well as actual figures for Q1 2025 as a year-on-year comparison basis.
| metric | Q1 2025 actual (y-o-y) | full year 2025 actual |
|---|---|---|
| Income | $1.112B | $4.94B |
| thin eps | $4.33 | $17.57 |
| Revenue YoY Growth | +2.53% | +4.96% |
| US same-store sales | -0.5% | N/A |
| EPS vs Estimates | defeated by +6.29% | N/A |
Same-Store Sales, Margin, and DPC Dash Wildcards
American same-store sales deserve the closest scrutiny compared to everything else. Compared to the -0.5% compound from Q1 2025, any positive number represents a meaningful acceleration. CEO Russell Weiner clearly set the tone after Q4: “It is our expectation that we will meaningfully grow our market share within the US QSR pizza category which continues to grow.” The new brand campaign and the new e-commerce platform, both to launch in 2026, are the tools it is betting on. Over 85% of US retail sales already happen through digital channels, so a better digital experience should translate directly into order volume.
Margin pressure remains. Insurance, labor and food inflation squeezed company-owned store margins by 5.4 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2025, and those pressures have not abated meaningfully. See if management signals any improvement on that line or reports further headwinds in the commentary.
One technical item worth noting: DPC Dash investments have distorted EPS in both directions in recent quarters. Q1 2025 EPS of $4.33 was inflated by $42.7 million in unrealized DPC Dash profit, making the year-ago comparison look good on paper but difficult to accomplish operationally. Q3 2025 net income was hit by $29.2 million from unrealized DPC Dash losses. Keep an eye on this volatility again in Q1 2026 results and focus on operating income as a clean signal.
Internationally, Domino’s enters the first quarter of 2026 with significant progress. The company reported its 32nd consecutive year of growth in international same-store sales in 2025. The continuation of that sequence will strengthen the global sustainability of the brand.
A dividend record that demands respect
Skeptics point to the stock, which has fallen 21.12% in the past year and trades below its 200-day moving average of $420.27. The dividend story is based on its own merits. Quarterly payouts have increased from $0.20 per quarter in 2013 to $1.99 today, representing a 5-year CAGR of 18.2% and a 10-year CAGR of 19.3%. The dividend record reflects a sustainable, cash-generating business. Analysts have set a consensus price target of $474.94 compared to the current price of $367.94, which suggests meaningful upside. 20 analysts have rated the stock a buy versus a sell only 2 times. April 27th is a moment to build trust with results.