Trump is blocking Iranian Persian Gulf ports. What does it mean?

President Donald Trump imposed a “blockade” of access to Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf with great fanfare on Monday, announcing his intentions on social media and then announcing the implementation on his scheduled deadline.

But what does it actually mean to block access to this area? Oil What do exports through the Strait of Hormuz mean and what does Trump want to achieve?

A former Biden-era Pentagon official said the US is trying to turn the tables on Iran, which blocked the strait for weeks during the US-Israeli war with the country, creating a blockage that has shaken global markets and pressured the economy. Experts say the blockade aims to persuade Iran’s leaders to back down and accept US demands to end the war and restore freedom of navigation in the strait.

“It appears to be what the administration is calling a close blockade, which is an effort to prevent ships from going into those ports or leaving those ports,” said Michael Horowitz, senior fellow for technology and innovation at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. “The principle behind a close blockade of Iran’s ports is to make it impossible for Iran to derive financial benefits from the sale of oil through shipping in the strait, while preventing others from doing so.”

Iran is one Top-10 Petrostatewhich is about 4% of the world Oil Production – most of which is sold to China. Shutting down Iran’s ability to export oil could have a huge impact on the country’s economy.

Trump announced on Sunday that he would block the strait, a significant escalation following a two-week ceasefire and reports that Iran is planning to impose tolls on ships passing through the waterway. US Central Command later clarified that it would impose a blockade “against ships of all nations entering or departing from Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.”

Ports of other Middle Eastern countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, can also be accessed through the strait.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel who is now a senior adviser to the Department of Defense and Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the US is likely to impose a blockade similar to the one it imposed on Venezuela last year. Under that blockade, America seized many ships.

“We’ll know a lot when the first boardings happen, because that’ll tell us where they’re getting on the ship, how they’re doing it and what happens once they get on the ship,” Cancian said.

He said the US is more likely to impose sanctions on ships east of the strait in the Arabian Sea than in the strait itself or the Persian Gulf, where Iran has more agency to intervene. However, Cancian said that America can seize the ships there if it wants.

He said the boarding itself would likely be done by landing a helicopter on a tanker, but could also be by boat.

Horowitz said the blockade is likely an attempt by the administration to resolve pending problems with the Strait of Hormuz as it prepares to retreat from the war in Iran.

“Even if the United States wanted to take and leave now, the obstacle to the success of that approach would be whether Iran is charging any tolls from ships passing through the strait,” he said. “Resolving freedom of entry and exit access across the strait is now essential to how the Trump administration is now thinking about the conflict, and they see this blockade as a key element to maximize economic pain for Iran in the hopes that Iran will back down.”

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf took a dig at Trump. In an X post on SundaySaying “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’ in place, you’ll soon be indifferent to $4-$5 gas.” The post included an image of a map with gas station locations near the White House listing prices per gallon.

The US military already has everything it needs to enforce a blockade of Iranian waters, thanks to a month-long gathering of naval forces in the area.

“You already have multiple carrier strike groups in the region and the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is already based in Bahrain,” Horowitz said. He said the US also has significant submarine and satellite capabilities. “The U.S. military has the ability to effectively monitor whether ships are coming or going, allowing the U.S. vector to intercept those ships and prevent them from selling oil to Iran.”

And Cancion said the blockade itself would be “cheap”, presumably not adding additional expense to the war effort, the costs of which have soared – as long as it did not reignite open conflict between the two countries.

He said, “You’re not firing million-dollar missiles at anyone. All the costs of the ship and crew are basically already budgeted in.” “And if you sell oil you can make money, too, and that’s certainly something Trump would love.”

It was not immediately clear what impact the blockade would have on oil prices and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose after the announcement of the blockade and are still Hovering around $100 per barrel.

Trump acknowledged the danger from speed boats in a statement on Monday satya social postSaying that the US “does not consider them much of a threat.”

Nevertheless, the President said that if the boats “come anywhere near our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated using the same system of killing that we use against drug dealers on boats at sea.”

The US has launched sweeping attacks on boats that the Trump administration claims are smuggling drugs to the Caribbean and the US

Cancian said Iran could launch “kinetic responses” like drones, “lay more mines in the strait,” or “depending on how crazy they wanted to be, they could blow up a tanker.”

But he said their options are limited because “they don’t have a navy, they don’t have an air force, there’s not much they can really do to stop a boarding operation.” However, Iran could become more aggressive over U.S. operations to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which would force U.S. forces “to do something they don’t like, right under the noses of the Iranians.”

How the blockade will end is less clear. Iran has said it will view the entry of military vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as a violation of the ceasefire and will respond accordingly.

On the other hand, Horowitz said, if the blockade does not meet its goals, the US may need to take more direct military action to prevent Iran from endangering ships passing through the strait.

Horowitz said, “To effectively end the conflict, the US needs to tell Iran the conditions under which it would stop fighting, and the US and Iran probably need to have at least some understanding about the conditions under which the US might restart conflict with Iran.” “Because if Iran believes that no matter what they do, the US is going to come after them, then their leaders will have an incentive to continue fighting and threatening the strait.”

“It makes it a really challenging negotiation,” he said.

Cancion said the blockade is one of Trump’s “three levers” that he has left. Second, this strait has to be opened by ending Iran’s hold on it. And the third would be what Trump threatened to do earlier this month, when he came close to intensifying the US bombing campaign to target civilian infrastructure.

“Besides, I’m not sure what leverage he has,” he said.