How Trump changed NATO’s extraordinary 48 hours

For 48 hours in Ankara, Türkiye, it seemed as if the world was running on Donald Trump’s timetable.

The markets faltered. NATO allies prepared for confrontation. Ukraine looked for reassurance. Iran threatened to reverse the agenda. One moment, leaders were preparing for a diplomatic crisis; The next, they were describing a “love-in” with the same President that many feared would split the coalition more than ever.

I’ve covered hundreds of major international events during my 25 years at CNBC – the G7, G8 and G20 summits, OPEC meetings, climate summits and multiple trips to Ukraine. But I have never seen such a dramatic reversal of fortunes, which affected so many global players, condensed into just 48 hours.

The NATO summit was not just another diplomatic gathering. It became a real-time demonstration of how quickly the geopolitical landscape can change with President Trump at the center.

While major summits involving the US inevitably revolve around Washington, this felt different. It revolved not just around a country, but also around an individual.

Think about everything that was in the game. Iran. Russia’s war in Ukraine. Greenland. European security. Spain’s refusal to meet NATO military expenditure targets. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s uncertain stance with Washington. It seemed as if every major issue converged on one summit – and each of them ultimately revolved around the US President.

To recount, every European NATO member – plus Canada – was effectively on trial when we came to this gathering. Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were again aggressively criticizing NATO for its lack of support on Iran and failing to spend enough money on its security.

Furthermore, the president once again took aim at Denmark over its refusal to hand over Greenland to the greater good – whose greater good was a mildly moot point – and, of course, Spain was getting both barrels for being worse than the other 30 NATO partners in its military spending.

Zelensky was in the city to once again rally NATO support. And to be honest, he never really knows what kind of reception he’s going to get from the leader of the free world.

Then came the absolute bombshell from Mr. Trump that he dealt with the Iranians, dealt with the MOU and the ceasefire. The market went south and the oil went north.

At that time Shikhar seemed to be moving towards confrontation.

And yet, the optics suddenly changed. Just like that the mood changed and suddenly love was in the air.

Even before Trump’s big final press conference, world leaders were quietly telling me that the meeting with Trump had been fantastic, that he was very happy, that he listened to every leader behind closed doors – really listened – and walked away in good mood.

Wait, is this the same Donald Trump who was scolding partners just hours ago?

Yes, apparently so.

I wasn’t so sure, but I heard it from the horse’s mouth myself just hours later, when in front of a thousand journalists at his summit closing press conference, the US President confirmed that the affair was real.

Standing alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, Hegseth and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the president spoke of the “tremendous love in the room” during the leaders’ meeting. “The unity was amazing,” he said. “Love was so wild.”

It was a marked change from the public criticism that Trump had directed at many of the same aides just hours earlier.

The summit produced some clear winners and losers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerged stronger after hosting a seamless summit and moved closer to securing US approval for F-35 fighter jets.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte continued to praise Trump and, in doing so, helped keep the US engaged with NATO, at least for now. Spain and Denmark, despite initial attacks, walked away from Trump’s closing press conference without any major rebuke from the US.

Another big winner will surely be Zelensky, who has risen in the US president’s estimation as Ukraine has stabilized the battlefield and taken the fight deep into Russia despite the odds. The Ukrainian leader may also have secured a deal for the production of Patriot missile systems – which Kiev has long seen as a priority.

Losers? Well, Putin would clearly have been unhappy with both NATO’s show of unity, its huge progress on defense spending, and Trump’s warm welcome to Ukraine.

And Iran? Well, this remains a big unknown.

When I got a chance to ask him a question, I asked the American President directly: “What will happen next if you really give up the ceasefire?”

I’m afraid his answer was opaque. He simply returned to the issue that Iran will never have nuclear weapons.

And perhaps that is the lasting conclusion of these extraordinary 48 hours.

The atmosphere inside NATO changed dramatically during the summit, but the biggest questions remain unanswered. What will happen next with Iran? Will the good mood between Trump and NATO allies continue after this meeting? And what does this ultimately mean for Ukraine?

Those questions matter more than political theater. But if this summit demonstrated anything, it is how quickly the geopolitical landscape can change when Donald Trump is at the center of it. Allies, adversaries, and markets alike are learning to adjust in real time.