Money is made in real estate on buying, not selling. This means that every dollar you negotiate over the asking price is a dollar directly tied to your net worth. So you need every tool at your disposal: savvy representation, patience, a compelling proposal, and yes, even publicly available data that happens to be wrong.
It’s not about lying or making anything up. It’s about using the information landscape to your advantage, in the same way that salespeople and their agents already do.
The chart that inspired this post
Take a look at Parcl Labs’ “Bullish vs. Bearish Housing Markets” chart below. Parcl Labs bills itself as a real-time real estate analytics company. This chart is really useful to gauge trends in markets like Florida and Texas, where the COVID-era boom is waning and supply is still high.
But note the circular point: SFO. That’s San Francisco. According to Parkal Labs, house prices here are decreasing year after year.
I live in San Francisco. I track dozens of properties. I look at offer dates, high demand premiums and comps as a hobby at the moment. Prices in San Francisco are up at least 10% year over year, not down. Properties are going well above demand. Bidding wars are back. The data that Paracl Labs is showing for SFO is completely wrong.
And that’s exactly the point.
Two Ways to Use Flawed Data as a Buyer
There are two ideal moments to deploy publicly available data like this.
The first is before you enter into the contract. If a property is lying on the market, it is likely to be worth more. Create a chart like this, print it out, and present it respectfully as part of your offering narrative. You are not accusing the seller of anything. You’re just showing them what the data says. Even if the data is wrong, it creates doubt and doubt creates room for conversation.
The second is after you are in escrow. This is a more powerful step. Once a seller accepts your offer, they are committed emotionally and logistically. They’ve told their friends, their family, maybe even picked out their next location. The last thing they want is for the deal to fall apart. Any credible looking data indicating market softness gives you a reason to come back and ask for a price reduction or credit during the observation period.
I have bought seven properties and sold two in 23 years. I have seen these dynamics play out firsthand. When we bought our current home, we signed the contract in late July and didn’t close until early October. This gave us several weeks to inspect, identify issues, and negotiate credit. We didn’t capture everything, but we destroyed major items.
Fear is a salesman’s worst enemy
Part of why this works is psychological. Sellers are not immune to fear. In fact, sellers are more afraid of not being able to sell a home than buyers are of not being able to buy a home.
I sold one of my properties in 2025 partly because the Southern California fires scared me. I owned four rental properties worth over eighty rupees and I suddenly couldn’t stop imagining one of them burning down with a $1.4 million mortgage. So I sold it. I probably lost at least 10% in future profits. Fear is expensive.
As a buyer, you can channel that same fear productively. Show a chart that shows prices are falling. Write some headlines about AI layoffs in Meta, Block and others. Make the case that an improvement in the tech sector could put downward pressure on housing demand. None of this is made up, it’s all real noise from real sources. You are simply leading it to a conclusion that will help you.
On a $2 million San Francisco home, just negotiating a 1-3% lower price with a seller could save you $20,000 to $60,000. This is a worthwhile number worth 30 minutes of preparation.
Look for all the capital letters and headings used to market the data. Fear sells!
Perception is reality, especially in real estate
The same dynamics that let savvy buyers pick up San Francisco properties at relative value in 2023 during the so-called Doom Loop narrative are available to you right now.
The Internet is full of real estate data that is out of date, incorrectly collected, or incorrectly tailored to local conditions. You don’t need to make anything of it. You just have to know where to look for it and how to present it.
The larger the gap between perception and reality, the greater the opportunities for the patient, informed buyer.
RELATED: When Advertised Square Footage Differs from Public Records
Readers, have you ever used publicly available data, whether accurate or not, to negotiate a lower price on a home or large purchase? How did this happened? Where is the ethical line between making strategic use of publicly available data and misleading the vendor? Is there anyone? What other negotiation strategies have worked for you when buying real estate?
Are you interested in investing in these beaten markets?
If the Sunbelt data has you confused rather than scared, you’re thinking like an investor. Markets like Texas and Florida are experiencing exactly the same type of price correction and excess supply that historically precedes a rebound. The question is how to get exposure without buying rental property, dealing with tenants, or flying to San Antonio to put tires on a duplex.
it is right here raise fund Comes in.
Fundrise is one of the easiest ways to start dollar-cost averaging across real estate markets across the country, including the Sunbelt markets that appear in the bearish quadrant of the Parcel Labs chart. Instead of going all in on one property in one zip code, you get diversified exposure across dozens of markets and property types, managed by a professional team that does the due diligence for you.
You can start with as little as $10. There are no tenants to manage, no unexpected repair bills, and no escrow drama. Steady, automated investments in real estate at any pace that suits your budget.
Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai and Financial Samurai is an investor in Fundrise products. All opinions are my own.
