Will China help Trump end the Iran war?

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday at the conclusion of a two-day presidential summit in Beijing that China is eager to “help” in peace talks between Washington and Tehran.

In an interview with Fox News on Thursday, Trump said that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had refused to send military aid to US forces in Iran, but he had offered diplomatic help.

“He would like to see the Strait of Hormuz open,” Trump said, adding that Xi said China was ready to help in efforts to end the war.

“He said, ‘If I can help in any way, I’d like to help,'” Trump said.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump said he and Xi were “almost completely in agreement” on the situation in Iran.

Asked whether he believed China would pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said he was “not asking for any help.”

He said, “When you ask for a favor, you have to do a favor in return. We don’t need favors.”

But he said in reference to Xi, “I think he will.”

“I think he would like to see it open,” Trump said. “He gets about 40% of his energy or oil from the strait. We get nothing. We don’t need it.”

On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told CNBC that China would be working behind the scenes to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

CNBC has contacted the Chinese government for comment.

The Iran war has now reached its third month, sending gas prices higher in the US and oil prices higher globally as Iran continues to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and other commodities.

Washington suspended strikes on Iran last month, but Trump has said the ceasefire is “on life support” as the two sides struggle to agree on the terms of a peace deal.

Trump told Fox News on Thursday that China has agreed to buy American oil, adding that Xi would like to see the Strait of Hormuz toll-free.

According to the US government, China is Iran’s largest trading partner and the primary buyer of its oil. Chinese purchases account for about 90% of Iranian oil exports and provide Tehran with tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue.

Beijing has largely stayed away from the US-Iran war, but has criticized the conflict and called for an end to it.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated that stance on Friday, saying Beijing “believes that dialogue and negotiation are the right way forward, and the use of force is a dead end.”

“There is no point in continuing this conflict that should not have happened in the first place,” he said. “Finding an expeditious way to resolve the situation is in the interest not only of the United States and Iran, but also of regional countries and the rest of the world.”

There are likely limits to how much influence China would be willing or able to exert to help end a US-Iran war, analysts told CNBC.

Yu Su, chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said that while the bilateral talks between Trump and Xi “highlighted that they have common ground” when it comes to Iran, there are limits to what China can realistically do.

“The Iranian regime is operating in a survival mode and will prioritize its interests and agenda above everything else,” he said.

Damian Ma, director of the Carnegie China Research Center, told CNBC that Beijing has no deep interest in supporting Iran.

“Over the last decade, it has become clear that China is diversifying its relationships in the Middle East – whether it’s Saudi Arabia or the UAE. It was really a relationship of convenience,” he said.

Although there may be some consensus and agreement between the US and China on what to do about Iran, Ma said China would be less motivated than other economies by fears of an energy shock.

“China is one of the countries best placed to absorb a shock to oil markets – it has a lot of renewable energy, it has a lot of domestic coal,” he said. “Compared with many other countries, China is in quite a good position.”

Meanwhile, Eurasia Group China analysts questioned how far China would be willing to go when it comes to US-Iran diplomacy.

“The limited coordination base case remains on Iran, more likely on Taiwan,” he said. “The US readout suggests that Beijing has taken a more assertive stance on Iran, made clear its opposition to the Hormuz toll, and may increase US energy purchases as a means to allay Washington’s concerns. (But) this is probably the extent of US-China coordination on Iran.”

Analysts at Raymond James said in a note earlier this week that China was unlikely to join the situation voluntarily.

“Trump may want to use China’s influence to advance stalled talks with Iran, but we doubt China will want to use its influence too forcefully in this context,” he said.

“Beijing needs to balance its relations with Iran, other Arab Gulf partners, and the US; that way, we will likely continue to push China’s case for peace without playing a more active role.”

He said one area where China could play a more prominent role is as a potential recipient of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, should a proposal to move the remaining reserves out of Iran come to fruition.

Kirk Yang, a professor at National Taiwan University’s School of Political Science and Economics, said Trump needs Beijing’s assistance to end the war.

“Trump needs China’s help in ending the war with Iran and increasing global oil supply, reducing US oil prices and inflation, as he has midterm elections coming up in about six months,” he said. “Trump would also like more trade with China, and (probably) reduce tariffs for China. However, it is very clear that Trump will continue to block China from access to high-end AI chips and technology, which would have a major impact on US national security.” Is.”