US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | reuters
President Donald Trump’s face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is a high-stakes meeting filled with risk as well as reward.
The meetings in Beijing on Thursday and Friday could be a watershed moment for the rival superpowers, whose fragile relations have been strained by economic and political conflicts over the past year.
The long-running Iran war and the long-running dispute over Taiwan are also expected to figure in the discussions between Trump and Xi. Each of those thorny issues affects not just Washington and Beijing, but the rest of the world.
“The stakes are exceptionally high,” the professor said. arthur dongA China expert and professor of strategy and economics at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Trump is leaning into the campaign. “Great things will happen for both countries!” he wrote in a satya social post monday.
For China, however, Trump’s visit is the latest in a series of high-profile meetings with implications for geopolitics. An Iranian official met his Chinese counterparts in Beijing last week, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit the city a few days after Trump’s departure.
Analysts of US-China relations say they are keeping their expectations low for the outcome of the meeting, as each side has incentives to reduce tensions and avoid international incidents.
Trump and Xi “want to reinvigorate our relationship and want that kind of stability.” kyle chanExpert on US-China relations at the Brookings Institution. “Everything else is gravy.”
The White House is framing the meeting in the context of trade and the US economy.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters on Sunday that Trump’s main goal is to continue to “rebalance the relationship with China and prioritize reciprocity and fairness to restore American economic independence.”
The stakes will be high for the summit and every word from each leader’s mouth will be analyzed. Here’s what to keep in mind:
iran
A motorist rides a scooter on a street in Vanak Square in Tehran on May 6, 2026, near a billboard in front of a building showing the Strait of Hormuz and reading “Forever in the hands of Iran” in Persian.
AFP | getty images
Days after the US and Israel first attacked Iran on February 28, some experts thought an aggressive attack might Trump promoted his meeting with Xi, which was then scheduled to take place in late March and early April.
Less than two weeks later, Trump said the US had asked China to delay the summit in the wake of the Iran war.
Now, with the war lasting far longer than the Trump administration’s previous prediction of a four- to six-week effort, some see China gaining a positional advantage.
“This provides China with a certain degree of advantage,” Dong said. He said Beijing is Iran’s largest trading partner and top buyer of its oil.
“China has a lot of influence on Iran,” he said. Should Trump try to end the conflict in its current state, “China certainly has a role to play in that.”
China has avoided directly involving itself in the war, although it did engage in diplomacy last week, hosting Iran’s foreign minister for the first time since the war began.
However, Trump’s political position appears increasingly linked to this conflict.
The war has dealt a historic blow to global energy supplies, sending prices of oil and gas, fertilizers and other products soaring in the US and around the world. As US gas prices have risen, Trump’s approval ratings have fallen among Americans for whom higher prices are a top concern. Very election This shows that Americans also oppose war, potentially tightening Trump’s political flexibility.
taiwan
The Taiwanese flag is seen on an overpass ahead of National Day celebrations in Taipei, Taiwan on October 8, 2025.
Ann Wang | reuters
Dong also said US efforts in Iran have diverted its attention from the Pacific region, potentially creating vulnerabilities for Taiwan, a US ally and major semiconductor maker, that China may soon try to exploit.
“If China contemplates an attack, this may be the most opportune time to do so,” the professor said.
Even if China doesn’t take that action, there are still other travel strings related to Taiwan that Trump will have to avoid during his time with Xi.
The Chinese are “extremely focused” on any language change by Trump on Taiwan, Chan said.
America has micro situation On Taiwan: It acknowledges that Beijing recognizes that Taiwan is part of China, and claims that there is only one Chinese government. But it also maintains a strong, though informal, commercial and cultural ties with Taiwan, and has remained vague about whether it would defend Taiwan if it was attacked.
Trump, who often speaks off-the-cuff in official remarks and is known for going off on long, impromptu tangents, could be at risk of falling off that diplomatic tightrope if he steps too far.
“There are some fears in Washington that Trump will make some kind of comment, (or) agree to a change in language about how the US views Taiwan’s situation, which would be more in line with Beijing’s hope,” Chan said.
He said China could take advantage of any such divergence to strengthen its position towards Taiwan.
Trump provided an example of how this situation could play out on Monday when he was asked at the White House whether he expected Taiwan to come up in his conversations with Xi.
“Yeah, it comes up all the time,” he said, before quickly pointing to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he often claims would never have started if he had been president at the time.
“Taiwan, I consider it a little bit equivalent to that,” he said. “You have the right president, I don’t think that will happen, I think we’ll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi, (who) knows I don’t want that to happen.”
Trump then said that China is geographically much closer to Taiwan than the US, adding, “Taiwan is getting a lot of support from Japan and countries in the region.”
Asked whether the United States should continue selling arms to Taiwan, Trump said, “President Xi would prefer that we not do that, and I will discuss that. That’s one of many things I will talk about.”
Trump described him as a “wonderful guy” and said he and Xi had a good relationship.
A senior US official told reporters previewing the visit on Sunday that the US did not expect any change in US policy towards Taiwan.
Trade, Tariffs, Rare Earths and Deals
While geopolitical turmoil may be in the headlines, deteriorating US-China economic relations are going to be the major topic of the summit.
Washington and Beijing were locked in a bitter trade war last year, with much of the conflict focused on Trump’s aggressive, shape-shifting tariff policies and China’s retaliation.
Tension eased after talks with US trade negotiators and their Chinese counterparts. Trump’s generous use of tariffs was scaled back in February The Supreme Court ruled his global “reciprocating” tariffs unconstitutional.
Now, some US companies are hoping to turn the Trump-Xi summit into new purchasing agreements.
The White House said on Monday that top officials – including Tesla chief Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg – will visit China this week as part of a US delegation.
That entourage of more than a dozen business leaders is smaller than the one that accompanied Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia last year, when more than 30 US officials accompanied him.
Ortberg said in a earnings call China could soon place orders for a “large number” of the planes, ending years of drought for the US aircraft giant after Chinese purchases from rival Airbus, China said late last month.
Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, who is attending, told Bloomberg in November that her company was seeing renewed interest from Chinese investors.
Experts also speculate that Trump and Xi could announce Chinese purchases of American soybeans or other agricultural products that Beijing boycotted during the trade war, which would hurt American farmers.
“The American people can expect the President to deliver an even better deal for our country,” the White House’s Kelly said Sunday.
Expected topics of discussion include the creation of a bilateral board to manage trade between the two countries, he said, and another group aimed at “providing a government-to-government platform to discuss investment-related issues.”
“The two sides will also discuss additional agreements on industry, including aerospace, agriculture and energy,” Kelly said.
In addition to progress on trade deals with China, one of the Trump administration’s top hopes for the summit could be to strike agreements on rare earths used in the growing semiconductor industry.
Tensions with the US increased last year due to China’s tight export controls on valuable materials.
“I think ultimately that’s what’s driving the Trump administration’s eagerness to have a good relationship with China,” Chan said.