Protesters opposing redrawing Florida’s congressional map hold signs outside the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee, Florida, U.S., Tuesday, April 28, 2026.
Malcolm Jackson Bloomberg | getty images
Tennessee’s Republican Governor Bill Lee on Thursday signed into law a federally-approved measure to eliminate the state’s only Democrat-held congressional seat. It is the latest move in the race to redrawn US House districts in the wake of a key Supreme Court decision and ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The maps are “crazy,” according to Rep. Steve Cohen, a Memphis Democrat who holds the seat Republicans are targeting. one in post on x As a special session of the state Legislature began on Wednesday, Cohen said the proposal would prevent people living more than 200 miles from moving into the same district.
President Donald Trump knows he has to rig the game to keep his majority in November, Cohen Posted on x The law was signed after previously calling the effort a “power grab.” “And the TN GOP was willing to go along with it.”
Whether we win power or not, redrawn maps like Tennessee’s could be key to maintaining the House majority. And in the redistricting race to the bottom, neither party seems willing to take their foot off the gas.
The Supreme Court’s April 29 decision in Louisiana v. Calais invalidated majority-Black, Democrat-held districts in Louisiana to weaken part of the Voting Rights Act and paved the way for states across the South to redraw their own congressional maps. Except for Louisiana and Tennessee, alabama And South Carolina Steps have already been taken to do so.
State Senator London Lamar, a Democrat from Tennessee, holds a copy of the proposed congressional map for Tennessee during a special legislative session at the Tennessee State Capitol on Wednesday, May 6, 2026, in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.
Madison Thorne | Bloomberg | getty images
Republicans face an uphill climb to retain their majority, as they struggle under the burden of President Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings, the ongoing Iran war and rising gas prices. But recently they have been taking a more optimistic stance.
“You have one or two seats in each state — that’s huge,” said one Republican operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “When you have a three-seat majority, every single seat counts.”
“There is definitely a way forward. I think with (the Calais decision) happening, that way becomes even brighter for us,” the operative said.
Can Democrats still win the House majority?
Even after the Supreme Court decision and other prior redistricting efforts — such as in Texas and Florida, which could each give Republicans several seats — Democrats are widely seen as the favorites to regain the House majority later this year.
VoteHub, an independent political outlet that provides election analysis, gave Democrats an 85% chance of winning the House Forecast published on 4 MayAfter the Calais ruling.
And Democrats, despite the Supreme Court setback, are showing confidence.
“No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not be able to artificially force themselves into a majority in 2026. Voters will get the final say in November,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Wyatt Shelton said in a statement.
But the math can be tricky.
Republicans already had a slight edge over Democrats in the redistricting wars. according to a Analysis by nonprofit Issue One Before the Calais decision, Republicans were projected to gain 13 seats through partisan gerrymandering in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. According to number one, Democrats could gain 10 seats, though that depends on maintaining the new maps passed in Virginia are subject to a legal challenge in the state Supreme Court.
Issue One found that after Calais, Republicans could add at least five more, giving the GOP a lead of eight to 12 seats. If successful, those redrawn maps have real potential to disenfranchise minority voters, said Michael McNulty, policy director at Issue One.
“We are very concerned that this essentially gives politicians the green light to undermine the voices of voters of color,” McNulty said. “And it further inflames what was already a terrible war. It re-inflames it so that politicians can basically redraw the maps to protect themselves, instead of working hard to get voters to vote.”
More states in the 2028 election cycle are likely to target seats formerly protected by the section of the Voting Rights Act that was removed, including places like Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas. according to number one.
A staff member holds a chart that shows redistricting in the state of North Carolina as members of Congress speak during a press conference outside the U.S. Capitol on September 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Vin McNamee | getty images
And Republicans are urging states.
“States must be proactive on redistricting and move fast,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth. That group’s campaign arm invested $2 million in a state Senate race in Indiana to unseat a group of Republicans who had scuttled Trump’s redistricting effort there.
McIntosh said, “Indiana has sent a signal that Republican primary voters want legislators to be aggressive and get things done. Republicans must be prepared to fight.”
Trump has emphasized redistricting
According to Omar Noureldin, senior vice president of policy and litigation at the nonprofit Common Cause, the Supreme Court’s decision does not direct states to take any action on the districts concerned.
But some Republicans, including Trump, have interpreted it as a mandate.
“We cannot allow elections that are conducted in an unconstitutional manner merely for the ‘convenience’ of state legislatures. If they have to vote twice, that is what will happen.” Trump posted on TruthSocial On Sunday, pointing to the House races in Louisiana, where early voting had already begun, and then stoppedIn view of the decision.
“We must demand that state legislatures do what the Supreme Court says should be done. This is more important than administrative convenience. The result is that Republicans will gain 20 more House seats in the upcoming midterms!” Trump said.
Outside political circles, there is little evidence that these efforts are popular. Recently seventy-one percent of Americans YouGov poll said partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, while only seven percent said they support the practice. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said partisan gerrymandering should not be allowed, compared to 74% of Democrats.
But any major changes to curb partisan gerrymandering are unlikely in the near future. Congress could pass legislation banning mid-decade redistricting or requiring new independent redistricting committees. Democrats have prioritized such proposals in recent years. But both parties have little incentive to act in the current political climate.
Meanwhile, Noureldin called the current effort at redistricting across the South a “power grab.”
“They’re drawing districts in a way that allows them to choose their voters, not the other way around,” he said.